What now for Zimbabwe?

Well, the election is finished. Mugabe, as expected, remains in power - for another six years according to the consitution.

What do you guys think the international community (esp. the commonwealth) should do?

Many of you (in the previous thread) seemed to think sanctions should be placed, and Zimbabwe kicked out of the commonwealth, for starters - I am interested in why you guys thought this. How do you people view this in the light of the lack of success of sanctions regimes against countries such as Iraq, with dictators who are happy to repress the population to serve their own goals, thus painting the outside countries as the cause of internal problems?

Perhaps it is different in Zimbabwe, because it does not have the rich oil reserves and domestic wealth (corrupted, no doubt) that Iraq does?

If you don't think sanctions will work, what do you think should be done? Leave it be ...? Like so many other problems internationally, where can we draw the line in justifying international intervention on 'humanitarian' grounds? Is Vadinho's stance on such issues sensible - that we should just let it be sorted out internally, leaving Mugabe with his sovereign rights over the country of Zimbabwe - despite his (probably) illegitimate hold on power?

I'm very unsure about sanctions at the moment. They are a blunt tool, but where diplomacy has not worked, and excluding the idea of sending international military forces (which is less blunt, but very controversial, and unlikely to be justfiied where there is no risk to the rest of the world (i.e. no nukes, or weapons of mass destruction/killing power)) is there any other choice?

[Just for your information, I have an open mind on this issue - I'm a bit divided/unsure. I am eager to debate either side of the argument and switch between them freely. ]

The commonwealth are all pussies. Bush could do something but since Zimbabewe is not threat to the states he won't.

The most fucked up shit I heard was a black famrter complaining that after stealing a white farmers land, the white farmer wouldn't show him the best way to produce crops.

Sanctions will not effect Mugabe at all. He's already let the countries economy go to a shadow of what it was. Sanctions and fucking the economy further won't effect him as he still will be able to live rich off the people.

But we should still place them - as a start of stop to mugabe.

Mugabe is losing support from his supporters, the army is shying away from him now too. Hopefully there is a revolution. New Zealand could send troops over as back up for a revolutionary army to take this cunt out and put a just man back in power.

Bush doesn't care as Jono says, as whether Zimbabwe lives or dies its not about to affect the economy of america noticably.

If he is let to stay in power, its a sign for all other countries. If an evil dictator wants to force himself to power, by illegal means, starve the people of the country and basically be your average hitler/stalin style dictator, sure, go ahead, we don't care.

The scariest thing for me is south africas response. And how the SA prime minister is tight with mugabe.

The most important 2 things to do are let Zimbabwe know that the rest of the world/commonwealth disapproves strongly about what they did and put in place measures that will impact on those at the top and in power. I agree sanctions don't work that well, mainly because they affect the poor more than the rich, but there are ways of targeting the rich. I think being kicked out of the commonwealth is an absolute neccessity.

Yes, sanctions are a strange beast. I would tend to agree that they are not likely to affect Mugabe too much, but he's facing a foreign exchange crisis and hyperinflation regardless of sanctions. Both of these have the power to collapse the country anyway.

The only reason the fixed exchange rate regime (Z$55 to US$1 currently) has 'survived' is because trading is taking place in the black market for currency, apparently at levels of Z$130 to US$1. I'm not sure if the central bank could maintain the currency at the official level too much longer.

So what do you think Bush could or should do? You are quite derisive of him for not paying any attention to Zimbabwe, but what can he do, bar putting sanctions on? I'm pretty sure none of you guys would support any direct action from the US anyway! You say that Bush does not care about Zimbabwe and the region, but the US took direct action in Yugoslavia/Kosovo - and that is not a strategicaly important area of the world for the US either, at least as far as I know. This demonstrates to me that the US can, and does act on "humanitarian" grounds at times - even if you don't agree with the form of the action.

giznad: I too share your hope for a revolution, but if sanctions are hoped as a means to create this, I always get a bit nervous. This issue has surrounded a lot of the criticism of the sanctions against Iraq - that they essentially are designed to agitate the population, hope they blame the leader/dictator for it, and overthrow him via a revolution. In Iraq, this has not worked as Saddam has such skill and control over the population and has successfully painted the Western world as the culprits, dampening any support for such an overthrow. Could this too happen in Zimbabwe, or does the lack of oil mean Mugabe has less to play with economically?

I'd like to see him out of power, and hopefully the MDC would be better. Zimbabwe has shown so much promise, and it's such a shame that another African country has fallen into the mire.

The problem is that sanctions only work if all the world was to take part. To start with a ban on any sort of weapon or military equipment, then floowed by bans on things such as luxury goods (including vehicles and maybe even petrol), sporting and cultural isolation etc. More the type of sanctions against South Africa than Iraq. It is a really delicate situation and I would like to see those who really know the place talked to about what would work. In this situation the details of what they do is really important if they want to hit the right people, eg banning them from international soccer would work, but cricket could be a waste of time and hit the wrong people.

Yeah, indeed. I guess some of the differences with Zimbabwe is that it does not appear that Mugabe is a threat on the rest of the world. He does not seee to have world domination on his "things to do" list, and does not seem to particularly militarily minded.

Reagrdless of what sanctions you put on him, economic or sporting, or diplomatic - in the end, does it not just impact on everyone BUT the leaders? I'd be worried it'd mush Mugabe into forging links with other non-Western countries in order to get what he wants, if you know what I mean.

The fact that only me and you are posting on here shows how much people care.

Oh. *sobs uncontrollably*

And I thought I'd put a decent amount of effort in too, I don't even have a predetermined view on this topic either!

Maybe people just ignore my posts now. *sighs* Ahh well.

see this what i was saying the other thread about sanctions. have u seen that we're going to impose sporting sanctions.

i bet mugabe is sitting back going oh fuck new zealand is gonna play cricket with us anymore i better sort my out shit.

the teams mostly white anyways. what the fuck is the point in that!

I could say something here, but I'm legally bound not to.

mustapop - thats why soccer would be better.

eight: Hehe, what up with that?

hmmm soccer, yeah that would fuck alot of Zimbabwians (sp?) off. but i still don't really think that sanctions are gonna do shit.

maybe the UN should get of it's lazy arse & demand they do another election but have a shitload of UN peacekeepers there to keep order not just "UN observers".

& if they don't agree to do this, then the UN should do what they did in Afganistan to stop the Taliban. Just take over the government & give to whomever they feel is capable of not screwing up the country ie the presdential challenger Morgan Tsvangirai!

whatever they need to do they should do it now cos that poor bastards up on treason charges & odds are he'll get executed.

The NZ govt has set some pretty vicious sanctions for the ruling party members, they can't holiday in NZ. now they are fucked.

The only thing that can happen is a internationaly sanctioned Civil War. White against black sounds like a wikkid plan, cap mugabe bukka

Wooooohooooooo!!!

touch - at least they are doing something. It sends a message if nothing else. Reality is there is little we can do, but little is better than nothing.

yup justa