The North Korean Torpedo

I cannot believe the response of the international community here.
Calling it "unfortunate" and an "act of provocation" misses the point: it was an act of war.

It only differs in quantity from Pearl Harbour... qualitatively there's no difference.

Yeah I'm interested to see how this plays out. War would be almost too easy though and just cause a bunch of pain to the North Korean people with no real gain.

.

and they're the same people (Koreans) so maybe theres some humanity involved.
George Friedman in his "The Next 100 years" suggests that North and South Korea will re-unite before 2030 and that they will garner support from the USA to counterbalance the rise of Japan .

I'm not saying the response is a massive attack... but the weasel words piss me off. I like North Korea, any country that says fuck you to international hegemons is all good, but this was a blatant act of war. Calling it other things is like saying "unlawful sexual contact" rather than "rape."

Worst of all was the Chinese response which basically equated to a big fat 'So what?'.

Actions like that makes me very wary of the Chinese and their tendency to put business or political interests ahead of all other values.

46 People died, some quite horribly it would seem as they were likely trapped in air pockets at the bottom of the ocean for some time. You at least acknowledge the atrocity.

The biggest problem with all out hostilities in my eyes, is the serious casualties the South would face, what with so many missiles aimed at them, and then things like these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imnam_Dam http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwanggang_Dam

The South would likely face a fairly big civilian casualty number.


(Then you have the possibility of it escalating to a nuclear engagement)

The rise of Japan? LOL. Scotch that theory.

Well, well. According to the BBC today Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has said China "will not protect" whoever sank the South Korean warship in March. A clear shift.

I suppose now is as good a time as any for the world community to finally settle things with the regime in the North - it would not be a new war - the old one never finished o restartng the war now would probably cost less lives that the inevitable mass famine looming in the DPRK now all aid has ceased.

Militarily the North Koreans are a total paper tiger. Satellite images show columns of obsolete ad obsolescent armoured vehicles simply abandoned on road sides, out of fuel, lacking spare parts, their poorly trained and (very) hungry crews preferring energy-preserving sleep to vigorous manoeuvres. Any war would be over in twelve weeks. The trouble is the regimes last bit of power it still retains is a considerable ability to engage in what would effectively be an Al Qeada wet dream of a terror sate waging war.

One cannot hope that North Koren leadership wouldn't try and take as many innocent Koreans with them into oblivion as they could. The problem would be the first few weeks, when the DPRK would indiscrimiately plaster Seoul from fifty years in the making hardened artillery sites with HE and chemical weapons. And once the fighting was over, apart from the world wide shortage of flat screen TV's and other such electronic goods occassioned by the flattening of the LG and Samsung factories, how would the world cope with twenty four million starving North Koreans? I suppose once freed from the dead hand of corrupt dictatorship and given enough seeds, fertilizer and fuel they would feed themselves fairly quickly, but what would we do with them then? Twenty four million strangers to the world who would need de-programming from sixty years of racist and paranoid propaganda. Twenty four million people many of whom may all decide to move to South Korean cities looking for work. Twenty four million problems.

But at the end of the day those twenty four millions now face mass starvation and something must be done to save them.

The only thing left keeping Kim Il-Sung and all the rest of his regime in power is blackmail. And as I said, now is always as good a tme as any to call a blackmailers bluff, especially when the alternative - strict sanctions - will simply sentence hundreds of thousands of innocent North Koreans to a slow death by starvation.

But NK has the nuclear option right? So that makes any major offensive extremely risky.

maybe he'll die soon
then the real problems start
but the chaos will lend them into the hands of the South.
and they'll unite.?

ok , here is some of his thinking
Japan needs raw materials badly - it is still the second largest economy but imports ALL its raw materials (thats why it went to war in 1941)
Thus its dependence on the Persian Gulf makes it vulnerable
So it will also seek to expand into China and Pacific Russia (at first economically)
So its sphere of influence and concern will increase justifying increased military assertivness which it has the power to do - its military strength exists even now
Massive demographic problems arising in the next few decades really need to be resolved. Bottom line is nearly half of Japs will be old soon.

Japan has an enviable internal stability (this is why China will implode - it has none) This stability is shown by how easily the Japs have accepted their reversal of fortune in the last few decades. This stability allows it to change direction quickly eg it was a very militaristic nations prior to WWII. It can preserve its core values and yet change the way it does things. Its cultural isolation means there are few divisive social forces. Its ruling elite is based on merit with a highly disciplined population prepared to follow that eilite
This internal strength makes it unpredictable as it can execute policy changes that would tear other countries apart.
Of course they still have a fear of war
but they have a very strong technological and industrial base
They are a maritime nation so they will not be adverse to protect the sea lanes they need to import raw materials.

Assisting them will be his other predictions that China and Russia will implode (I havent got time to support this right now - if you're really interested read the book which I'm happy to lend) leaving Eurasia in chaos leading to regionalsim offering opportunities to other regional players such as Japan to poach and get involved in some of these regions

Involvement with China is beneficial to Japan as it assists the demographic problem they have without requiring immigration (which they abhor) and China needs investment and technology, so a symbiosis develops

Ultimately their options are really quite limited given the demograpic and economic pressures they face, so while at first reluctant their hand will be forced to become expansive and military.
The US will once again feel threatened and it will use a united Korea (which hates Japan) as its blocking force.

oh and the Economist said Dear Father wont last forever as well.

Either that or they are capable of detonating several thosand tonnes of high explosive down a shaft. They may have had a partial or very small nuclear reaction during one bomb test. But detonating a test bomb and weaponising it and developing a delivery system (bomber or missile) are quite different things.