NRL - the finals.

the business end of the NRL has arrived, and with one week to go before the finals series kicks off i'd like to hear what everyone thinks will happen...

the only problem is, picking winners/losers in the NRL finals is a bit of a lottery with the way the system works... anyhow

can't see the panthers being toppled from the top of the table - so it will be good to see them finishing as minor premieres...

the raiders just beat the doggies this weekend so they have shown their hand at being serious contenders for the trophy. the warriors have also put their hands up with 2 great wins this weekend and last over 2 of the league's strongest teams of the last few years... it could be tough for the warriors coming from the bottom half of the top 8, so hopefully the storm lose their last game against an improving sea eagles team, or we smash the wests tigers and get up on points difference...

the dogs and panthers both have pretty easy final games, and i think the knights will rest some key players as its impossible for them to finish higher than 7th, so those 3 sides will come out firing in the finals, and hopefully so will the warriors... the roosters and raiders both will have come off 2 weeks of hard encounters against the dogs and warriors respectively

ideally the top 8 would pan out like this -

panthers - 40
raiders - 38
bulldogs - 36 (better points diff)
roosters - 36
warriors - 34
storm - 32
broncos - 30
knights - 30


here is a link to work out the finals draw (its extremely random)
http://www.nrl.com/images/results_mcintyre.gif

but my finals predictions would realistically have to go like this...

i think the doggies will win it... they're used to finals football and i believe the most dynamic team in the competition...

the warriors will win through to a semi with either the dogs/raiders/panthers but i think their inexperience will be their downfall... but they will have had another successful season none the less.

the raiders and panthers will be my next choices (obviously)... and the roosters a definite darkhorse possibility when freddy fitler is back to full fitness... don't know too much about the storm but i guess you can't rule out any team that is in the top 5 of the toughest competition on the planet...

i don't think the broncos or the knights will be able to live up to their form of past years and i think both will lose their first finals games...

so yeah - thats my league rant for the week

Definitely the most even finals series for a long time. The outsiders in order I would rate as newcastle, storm, broncos. The unknown about the warriors is the way jones comes back and the impact of the younger players. I agree we'll probably make the semis and lose.

i predict warriors vs bulldogs in the grand final...warriors winning

My head says the Bulldogs or Panthers winning it, but my heart says the Warriors...

I can't see the Storm losing to the Sea Eagles so l'd say they'll finish ahead of us,

I was a bit worried about the Warriors mid season, but the last couple of weeks they've stepped up & if they can dispatch the Tigers by a big margin this week, will appoarch the finals on a roll & hitting form at the right time of the season

go the warriors.........what a great win over the roosters

if stacey is back next week then they have a real chance to go all the way

"the improving sea eagles"

the same eagles that lost 56 - 26 on the weekend ?

Id like to see the warriors go all teh way but Im not sure..........
I still think they need a Cleary or Campion, someone with finals experience ?

i fyou actually watched the game you would have seen that score was 28 -26 at one stage... and yeah they let the game slip, but they are still a team who is better now than they were at the start of the season...

do your research before you go running your mouth.

i predict that league will be the winner on the day and that the final will be a game of two halves.

Nice post smf (your 1st one I mean)

Im going to stick my neck out and pick Melbourne to take it out, I love the way they support the ball carrier inside and out. Reminds me of who the Kiwis would play if Freeman has at his best and running the ship

The Warriors have got a great show and would be my 2nd equal pick with Canberra. The Bulldogs do seem likely and an obvious choice but for some reason I don’t think they will do it. Hows Vagana’s shoulder? He’s vital to their chances with the tries he sniffs out each week

Penrith, Roosters Brisbane and Newcastle I have no interest in although Parramatta have a mathematical sniff of getting in and I believe they could easily win a couple in the finals series so that could rattle a few boats

If we make 5th place how many games would we have to win to make the finals?

we have to win all games to make grand final..if we finish 5th, we play 4th..which could be the bulldogs...1st and 2nd place have one life each..they play 8th and 7th..3rd plays 6th..


GO THE WARRIORS!!!!!!

Not neccesarily true manny. If we finish 5th or 6th we could still lose the first game and make the final.

basically i think we're extremely likely to be playing the storm first up - which would be a great start to our finals series i think... cos it looks dead set for both of us to finish 4th and 5th (either order we still have to play each other)

and yeah - they only drop the 2 bottom ranked losers after the first round of finals... so when the broncs and knights lose to the raiders and the panthers - it won't really matter what happens to us and the storm... (and whoever finishes 6th)

i think... its alla bit of a lottery at the start with scenarios

Now Im a very open minded person and follow the game very closelly and this is how I think it will end.

I have said since we started loosing and winning that by the end of the last rounds, we will be up there in full force killing of the big guns and I was right.

This weekend at home we are going to crush the Tigers, and in doing so jump ahead of the Stormers.

Then into the Finals we go:

Finals Week 1

Bulldogs vs Warrios ---> Warriors
Roosters vs Storms ---> Roosters
Raiders vs Knights ---> Raiders
Panthers vs Broncos ---> Panthers

Finals Week 2

Warrios vs Storms ---> Warriors
Roosters vs Broncos ---> Roosters

Finals Week 3

Raiders vs Bulldogs ---> Raiders
Panters vs Warriors ---> Warriors

Grand Finals

Warriors vs Raiders ---> Warriors

Its not a matter of faith its a matter of time ...

Cheers Re-Action for your post. The finals system is damn confusing; especially for Kiwis used to just straight semi-finals followed by 1 final.

I like your logic, and hope your predictions pan out. Go the Warriors!!! touch wood, no injuries

the warriors couldn't have picked a better time to start peaking...very similar to the roosters run to the grand final last year...

and they're winning the tight games which can help you in finals football and those games are gonna be absolute pearlers let me tell ya!


GO THE WARRIORS!!!

if you thought the aussies were cringing when they lost the bledisloe...imagine the NRL GRAND FINAL trophy crossing the Tasman...they'll be crying into their beers for a year...

Hell yes.................that would be so sweet

Especially (and correct me if Im wrong) theres bugger all Aussie players in the starting 17 at the moment

errrrrr....*tries to work it out*

Brent Webb is Aussie and Tookey and Justin Murphy are fringe starters at best

good call maestro...daniel anderson has stated he is developing local juniors...THAT tackle that thomas leuluai put on was a CLASSIC...no way was that a penalty...

Good to see that Stacey Jones is back this week against the Tigers.

there are still so many problems with making any picks at this point... having a look @ the table:

if the raiders and the bulldogs win this weekend that will lower the roosters to 4th on points differential

i think realistically the warriors will win, but won't win well enough to get over the storm on the table, as they have a game they 'should' win anyhow... so that will leve the storm in 5th and us in 6th

which would be bad for us - it would mean we'd have to play the dogs (in 3rd) first up... the more i look at it the more likely it seems...

so my first round of semis will be the same as you had i think reaction... but your week 2 looks a bit dodgey - if the broncos loose they're out of it - sudden death for them, also you have the dogs losing in week 1 and advancing straight to week 3??

so.

week one

storm v roosters - roosters
dogs v warriors - dogs/warriors (can't pick!!!)
raiders v knights - raiders
panthers broncs - panthers

so the broncs and knights are out as lowest ranking losers, panthers and raiders move to week 3 as highest ranking winners

week 2 - i think we'll be in no matter what the first week result is

warriors v roosters OR warriors v storm - warriors (who we play depends on whether we beat the dogs)
and i think the dogs will win out too

SO to week 3

dogs v raiders
warriors v panthers

and i wouldn't dare pick it from there! and even those plans are completely screwed should ANYTHING go stray...

too late... i'm getting confused... haha

SMF - Im with on the part with problems making a pic at this point, but if you have to pic I would say things are looking good for the Warriors. From #1-8 you have 8 teams that can take the GF. You cant write off any team at this stage. Come round1 finals it really doesn't matter who we play, it will be a hard game.

Im glad to see ppl like Jerry and Monty being rested giving Tooks and Latu another start. Latu I think is the secret for us, lots of excitment in his running and can create alot of space for us on dummy half, something we have been lacking. Damn we miss PJ and with Stacey back our back will have a little bit more direction - anyone noticed them running in circles against the chooks? no direction .. Stacey will solve that.

And as for brining the troffee over the Tasman ... ohhhhh we will be hated but what a feeling it would be !!

Hey dude - its Roland here .........

Could it be the one and only - SUPAMAORIFULLA >?????

Wassup bro ?

err... i've only ever met one roland in my life... and i doubt he is aware of my biggie handle...

flick me an e-mail

nathan@exceptional.co.nz

Little change to what I predicted but over all a good one. Glad we are playing the Doggies, I think we can take them out setting us up for a place in Round2

We will definitely be in for a tough game against the doggies. El Masri kicked 6 from 6 and they have a lot of finals experience.

The Warriors lost the plot when Stacey left the park, need him on for the whole 80 if they are gonna beat the doggies

is it knock out this w/end ?

my mate in Sydney is going to this game the lucky bastard!

2 lowest ranked losers bow out. Hopefully broncos and newcastle lose, which they should do, so we have a lifeline. I reckon the bulldogs are the worst team to get first up.

So stoked the panthers have had such a good season

I'm a true warriors fan now, but they used to be my favourite team for a long time

Wonder how they came back after being the cellar dwellars for sooo long

i agree that its gonna be a tough game against the bulldogs this weekend, its makes it harder for the warriors cos they are playing away from home.

i reckon it will be a close game and it will come down to who controls the 2nd half, i reckon the 1st half will be pretty even.

ill pick the warriors to beat the dogs by 4

The Panthers have a good coach & have basically had the same team for the last 2-3 seasons & have finally moulded in to a good team.....

John Lang is a great defensive coach..he took over the Panthers last year and they took a while to settle into his style of play..now they're reaping the rewards..and it helps to have the two form second rowers in your side..(who should have started the kiwi test together)..BUT they won't go all the way this year..as the sayin' goes "..ya gawda lose one ta ween one"......


GO THE WARRIORS!!!!!

Melbourne are kicking Canberras arse

Dude the Panthers is the worst defenders in the game.


And GO THE WARRIORS we just whipped some ASS !!

what a magestic performance from the warriors...

really showing that they can not only beat the best, but they can damage them...

there was a slow patch for about 10-15 minutes, but other than that it was the best game i have ever seen a warriors unit put together - and meli scoring 5 tries topped it off... definitely one of the best wingers in the game, especially with the way he defends...

what i find amusing is that if the broncos somehow get up over the panthers, the raiders will be sent packing, which would be a bit gutting for them considering they have had a pretty damn good season.

with the rooster's predictable victory over the knights, they've booked their position in week 3, and now the panthers have to do the same...

things are just so interesting in this competition... thats why i love this game!

Im picking the Panthers to win today so this is how I reckon the finals will pan out.

Week 2

First semi

4th ranked winner (Warriors) Vs 2nd highest ranked loser (Raiders)

Second semi

3rd ranked winner (Storm) Vs Highest ranked loser (Bulldogs)


Week 3

First preliminary

Roosters Vs Storm or Bulldogs (Storm)

Second preliminary

Panthers Vs Warriors or Raiders (Warriors)

Week 4

Grand final

Storm Vs Warriors

2003 PREMIERS NZ WARRIORS!!!

of course that could all go out the window if the Broncos win today.

looks like we could be on track for another grand final against the roosters too...

you know what they say! "you have to lose one to win one"

could be destiny playing its hand

Great win, nad how good has Brent Webb been over the last month or so. With all of the warriors little men being out at times he has stepped up brilliantly. I think he can take more credit for the warriors great run than any other single player.

Great win by the warriors...the bulldogs defence was woeful...ha ha ha ...and how about francis meli..?..the aussie commentators were speechless...loved every minute of it...but let's not get too carried away...still a few games yet...

Warriors on fire !!!! the grand finals run for the warriors looks better than the rest and its the little guys showing the way.

I'm hoping Lautiti hits his form which will make the forward pack twice as devastating.

Frances Meli heh thats my position too, his finishing not only reaps tries but he hurts the tacklers too

no injuries and with grand finals revenge they ooze with 2003 champions

on a local note: I'm picking the Canterbury Bulls to put away Marist Richmond for the Bartercard Cup.

OMG that was probably the best 80 minutes of footy I've seen the Warriors play, a great performance by a team hitting top gear at the right time........

Meli 5 tries - new finals record, nice one

Panthers beat the bronco's

BRING ON THE RAIDERS

yeah... next week:

warriors v raiders

storm v dogs

i think the raiders are due for a smash up, and could be in for a similar fate as the doggies were this weekend...

having said that the other game will be an absolute cracker - as many commentators said, the bulldogs will come out with a lot of passion and heart after being beaten so badly by us, and the storm are on a roll...

it just keeps getting better!

also, how good is it to see those PRICKS the broncos lose!?? so happy... just like teh queenslanders.... hahahahaha... there is no better site in sport than to see the likes of gordon tallis hang their heads in disappointment. AWESOME.

Warriors will win by 10
Dogs to win by 16


Sincerely,
Jeeves

what a game!

the Warriors will go all the way......

i reckon the raiders are quite vunerable at the mo, esp after there massive loss to melbourne last week.

i reckon we will be the raiders by 10

in the other game i reckon the dogs will take it by 14

Vodaphone & Eric watson have purchased 10 000 tickets to the raiders game & are giving them away free at ticketek if you present your NZ passport, lucky buggers

BTW that's a bit of money to be spashing out $30 @ 10 000 = $300 000

gonna be more like a home game for the warriors

what a good cunt !

I'll have to ring up a mate in Sydney and let him know.....

I wish I was in Sydney this weekend!

The other thing about the warriors this year is that they are much more an NZ team than last year, only a couple of aussies playing now, webb and villasanti are the ones that spring to mind.

also...

Tookey
Marsh
Carlaw ?
Murphy ?

I didnt realise Villasanti was an aussie !

But they are not playing at the moment. I was meaning the current team, not contracted players.

OK.

the plan was always to develop local talent and increase the local pool...they've signed a few aussies like danny sullivan for next year..

Bondi should be half empty then.

WARRIORS TEST

Villasanti can play for NZ or Aussie

he would have a longer test career if he played for NZ

but the lure of State of Origin may pitch him towards the Aussies

He has decided to play for Aussie. He was born and bred there anyway...

also last night Stacey Jones became the first still playing player to added to the NZ league imortals hall of fame, along side the likes of Freeman,Graham,Bell,

2 weeks ago..........


and now one 1 day ago




Trying to be all cool and knowledgable like me aye jah

Bro you are SO transparent at times


Warriors by 16

Storm by 3

Pity you didn't know about villasanti.

I pick the bulldogs and warriors. Both by 8.

what a game 17-16 couldn't get any closer than that

Stacey Jones is a drop goal legend

haha my stress levels were through the roof in the final 4 minutes of the game, lol

Big ups Stacey

Real nailbiter, but a win is a win and was a good tough game. Warriors never do that well when the 10m is not reffed well like, Mander was very poor on it last night. Bring on the panthers, I hope we don't get mander again.

what a game, gotta be up there with one of the best

agreed that stacey jones is a drop goal legend

i have to say tho that i thought they played pretty poor in the first 20 and if they play like that against the panthers then they have no chance.

tim mander had an absolute abortion of a game... that is some of the worst refereeing i have seen in quite some time, and that is a big call for the NRL!

other than that the raiders really did their homework on the warriors and did a fantastic job shutting down the ball carrier, as well as key players like meli and toopi...

was very sad to hear that the canberra coach had death threats against him, i didn't think it would come to that in the NRL - especially since canberra have had very much a dark horse season... but i was very impressed by the way he coached his team, and the heart they showed - they are a very good defensive unit, and stick to their gameplan better than anyone else, save maybe the panthers...

very good to see the lads pull through i tight situation, especially one where our attacking flair was limited by both the referee and a good gameplan - i think it showed our resolve and class more than any other game this season

its going to be a monumental game at the weekend - the panthers are a fantastic team, and i think play better team football most... key players like wesser, rooney, and girdler will be standouts, and of course the 2 kiwi lads puletua and galuvao (unless they're injured) will give our big boys a run for their money, and the ever classy craig gower is having a fantastic season - showing that he is possibly the best kicking halfback in the game at the moment (since joey johns is injured)...

the panthers are a great team, and it will take a great performance to beat them, but the same can be said for our boys...

go the warriors.

Couldnt agree more, Manders 10m was more like 5m at some stages of the match!!

Ridiculous at times from a normal speed play the ball the 1st reciever gets the ball about the same time as the tacklers

The NRL arent stoopied and will recognise this, Harrigon will control the Penrith Warriors game no question

Toopi man of the match for me......who actually won it....anyone know? Would like to see the tackle counts too as I thought Toopi was everywhere on defence

Maestro - Man of the Match was Sione Faumuina

ah.............he played OK too I guess

they said on NRL full time that stacey jones got man of the match...

even had a big interview with him...

Adrian Shelford died

http://www.rugbyleague.co.nz/news.asp?id=35373

Loved watching the big bald man intimidate the Aussies

R.I.P

yeah... very sad indeed...

I saw that buried in the paper the other day, very sad and he deserved more coverage than that.

thats so sad

played my junior and rep footy with & against the big fella

an absolute steamroller on the field, and an absolute gentleman off

R.I.P. big guy

Thats unusual SMF. After the game one of the announcers chatted to Sione on the field and said he was the VB Man of the Match. Even won $1000 dollars. Weird.

Maybe there is two "man of the match" awards handed out from two different organisations or something? Is one associated with Channel 9 and the other with something NZ based?

The game was just what the warriors needed a close hard match to get them ready for the panthers

Yeah possibily harv. One prize from Channel 9/VB and the other from Sky TV *shrugs*

I dont actually think Frances Meli is as good as everyone says. He looks a bit dumb to me. Big, sure, strong, yip, fast, not bad, brain the size of a swollen tonsil, I think so.
Thants what me thinks.

23 tries in a season is not many is it.

wingers dont really need brains, its a bit like using the internet

exactly DaFlash especially when you're as big as Meli.

23 tries in a season with Toopi inside you...........

Right ..................so Meli not very good hes just big, smart enough to use the internet and has Toopi inside him?

who saw the article in the sunday star times rating the wingers in NZ ?

Howlett
Rocokoko
Meli
Utai
fa'afilli

thats the order they werer ranked in...

They werer ranked on speed, awareness, finishing, creativity,defense and one or two other fields...

the judges were a mix of former league and rugby players who have played for NZ in either code, for each catagory they were given a score, say 22 ( example)

the totals for each catagory werer added up at the end to give a final score.

I think they got it pretty right....

I thought they rated meli ahead of rokocoko?

Rocokoko is a great player, but i can't see how he'd be rated no2 on 1 seasons performance??????

those are definitely the best 5 wingers in the games - but i would have the order a bit different...

i'd have howlett 3rd after rokocoko and meli...

It would be interesting if these guys swapped codes for a few games

I reckon if they swaped codes, meli would look even dumber. They can rank how they like, I wouldnt even put him on my top 5.

And I know everything, so you heard it here.

warriors to beat penrith by 7
roosters to beat bulldogs by 14

your obviously a rugby league expert, because if you can spot things in the game of a guy that scored 23 tries that we cant see then your a genius!

also, 5 tries in a finals match speaks for its self..... of course your gona say " anyone could have scored those" BUT 5 tries is whats on the score card for Meli, not anyone elses name....

jah, you may be right there mate..... ( 2nd not 3rd )

thanks.

to be honest you have no idea what you're talking about... if you watched any rugby league at all you wouldn't make such a foolish comment...

me, peter stirling (easily the best commentator of the game) and the rest of the rugby league world hold him in high regard. i suppose all those people who decided to watch their one game of rugby league a year against the raiders after hearing how well the warriors were doing would be a little disappointed in meli.

the reality of the situation is yes, he didn't have the most fantastic game, but was shut down by a superb raiders defensive unit...

and those people talking about his intelligence maybe somehwere near the truth - but do you honestly think howlett & co are any better? i went to school with doug and trust me he's no einstein. what meli lacks in smarts he more than makes up for in size, speed and skill - as well as being the best defensive winger in rugby league.

i really wish people who didn't know shit about the game wouldn't make such weak, pathetic comments that clearly show their ignorance.

An intellegent defensive winger wouldnt get tackld into touch while trying to get out of his in-goal when the scores are level with 5 minutes to go in the semis. There are many other instances when Ive thought what the fuck are you doing? These forums crack me up- when someones opinion differs from others, everyone gets all fiesty. All of a sudden I know nothing.
Meli is stupid and dumb, so theres hope for you people that dont know how to react to a difference of opinion.....

You could start playing league and become the best winger around

hahahahahahaha,
Suck it.......
And the funny thing is Im purposely not gonna come back to this forum and see what your reply is.....
hahahahahahahahah

yea, he must be really bad, hence why he was named in the team of the year..

Team of the year: Rhys Wesser (Penrith), Matt Sing (North Queensland), Francis Meli (New Zealand Warriors), Matt Gidley (Newcastle), Nigel Vagana (Bulldogs), Brad Fittler (Roosters), Craig Gower (Penrith), Luke Bailey (St George Illawarra), Danny Buderus (Newcastle), Shane Webcke (Brisbane), Joe Galuvao (Penrith), Tony Puletua (Penrith), Luke Ricketson (Roosters).

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3524968&thesection=sport&thesubsection=latest

wtf

Meli has all the skills as a league player and some !

earns more than some lawyers I know too, pretty smart really.

bspendy no one will miss you especially your stupid comments.
On another note congratulations have to go out to Eric Watson who has put on another 10,000 tickets for the game against Penrith. It's going to be a good one and hopefully the warriors can score first and control the game early on.

Unfortunately Tim Mander is refereeing our game this week. Hopefully Anderson can have a word to him about the 10m.

http://xtramsn.co.nz/sport/0,,3816-2691080,00.html

This week mander not playing the 10m may help us though. The panthers rely on speed and the chances of using that speed if the defence are up on you quickly are less.

That had nothing to do with the fact that it was an excellent kick and chase from Canberra eh?
Put any other winger from the competition in that situation and they probably would have ended up tackled behind the tryline or over the sideline.