How many years do you give facebook?

2-3 for me. Hard to imagine atm for some I suppose, but in three years it will be abundantly clear the fad is over. It's had a good run though.

Think it will last a lot longer than that, epecially now that its available with the android/iphone, and they constantly update what facebook is/does.

Now that we are all a world of voyeurs and exhibitionists, something better would have to come to take its place... otherwise its here to stay.

Also the potential is that it will completely replace personal email (I believe that is their aim anyway)

forums in formats like this one however... maybe 3-5 years...?

Smiley: Im not sure how you can even begin to say that?

At the very least there will be new users just based on kids getting older and more comfortable with living online.

Even if some people get sick of it chances are many will maintain a profile of some sort so I dont hink you can forcast the end of facebook let alone a significant drop in use.

Long. Simply because the guys who work for the Facebook constantly reinventing the way we communicate. It would have been 2-3 years if it was a static platform that hasn't changed at all.

Besides, the Facebook has created a certain connection/path for some people to keep in touch. Thus I believe it will be going for many years to come.

Yeah the ever-changing face will ensure its longevity. Im looking forward to facebook email.

facebook died last year... we're simply posting on and viewing its digital remnants as its slowly fades to grey

RIP facebook you gave good movie

I give it until something better comes along that has some yet to be known feature that makes it superior to Facebook.

Yeah facebook email is possibly a good move, not that I'd really want to touch it with a 10' bargepole. I imagine they will innovate but some things they could have innovated a while ago and haven't because it collides with certain ideals of the company.

When I say it won't last, I don't mean it will disappear, hell, myspace is still around... sort of... But facebook ain't google.

Kids will find something cooler. We're not the trendsetters anymore. Man, if I was making a new site I'd set it to ask for your facebook login so it can mine all your data to transfer it. Done.

I think the fact that every man and his dog and your uncle mertle has an account + fb's one-eyed view to a flat social structure makes the site less useful. Yeah you can filter people and control who see's what but the who does? Well some do. Most don't. The controls are a bit clunky, most people would rather just not post anything than fuck around with it.

Plus all the hype lately about it's value, Goldman Sacks etc... sounds like a front.

It's not the first, it won't be the last.

oh btw, I disabled my profile, I didn't unfriend anyone. That'd be just rude and uncalled for.

Bringing it back im march when it will actually be useful to me... I must admit it's fucking boring atm.

It's too big to die that quickly. Some people have invested too much time in it. I can only see it growing (although a lot slower than it recently has) in the next 10 years.

There's no way facebook is going to die even in the next 10 years

I'm going to enjoy coming back here in 3 years... *bookmarks thread*

How about we make a bet Give it 5 years, I'm betting fb will have at least 75% of its current traffic or whatever other paramater is easy for us to measure

OP is clearly a huge level :>

gg Smiley

Yeah, i cant see it failing any time soon. Even my mates who were "NEVER GOING TO DO THAT SHIT" are now joining up.

TOO BIG TO FAIL. :>

not too big to fail but its near future is assured thanks to the late adopters joining and considering it home (ie a market that can be counted on staying)

until its owned (or controlled) by an outside interest (refer news corp and myspazz, AOL and bebo et al) facebook shall remain

a better topic is when will all the early adopters just giveup on the place, if they haven't already - where they go lies the next multi bullian dollar dream

Yeah the sites that will killed by Facebook failed because of lack of functionality, apps and enhancements on Facebook have meant it will be very difficult for a blatantly superior product to replace it in the same way. Sure the chat feature is awful and there's all sports of things we don't like but the fact it allows for chat and games means it does things that we previously had to use multiple sites/appliations for. So long as they continue to make enhancements and add new features they are making it very difficult for competitors to come along with a product that blows them away. For that reason I imagine Facebook will be around for many years to come, it might not be recognisable to someone who stopped using it from now until then but tit will still be there and still be huge.

My comment was more of a pisstake, ala this;

Speaking of the next big thing, anyone been using Foursquare? Although I see Facebook has introuced 'Places', presumably to counter Foursquare..

I give Facebook at least another 7years. It's ridiculously huge, nearly 600million members and over 50% of NZ have a profile now. I've been on it since early 2006 and while some changes have irked me they haven't done anything yet to make me want to leave the site. It's too good a way to communicate with friends overseas and for photo uploading etc, sharing news stories

Yes this is the thing, how to measure...

Might reduce in popularity if something better comes along, but it won't "die" for fucking ages...2-3 years? No fucking way...10+ imo

Well the most obvious measure is "Is FB still around Y/N", since that's your theory.

NOTHING ever on the internet has achieved as much market penetration (especially amongst "normal, average, non-geek" users as FB, has, not by a LONG shot. So it's unfair to compare it to shonky outfits like Myspace (who got as far as they did despite, not because of themselves). They will be around for a very long time, proving Smiley wrong one day at a time.

ConnectU is the next big thing imo :>

if it went public, would you put money in it?

FB is currently valued (using recent Goldman Sachs capital raising) at 50 BILLION dollars. This works out to a Price Earnings ratio of about 100 that is its valued at 100 times its earnings. Most companies range between 8 - 25

So its current valuation is insane - eg at that ratio APPLE would be worth over a trillion dollars (and its only worth about 400bill) but goes to show that the corporate world believes in FB's longevity.

and it wont be going public anytime soon , and if it did I wouldnt put money in it.

No. Capitalism is evil.

@ GB

the biggest threat to facebook is itself - the thing we've seen time after time after time in the tech world is companies growing too fast not being able to find adequate revenue streams to maintain themselves and the growth they experience

goldman sachs et al will fuck facebook of that you can almost be assured

Not being able to find more funding is the reason they'll go public, but with such positive economic reports from people like GS, that won't be any time soon. Fuck didn't they just pull in another few hundred million?

the squid (GS) just raised them a lot of money very cheaply bob d so has done nothing but good for FB so far

exactly kris....

" a report in The New York Times that Goldman Sachs and a Russian investor have handed more than $500 million for a stake in the company.

The infusion gives Facebook a value of $50 billion - twice that of Yahoo"

and in a separate page

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10697780
Under the terms of the deal, Goldman has invested $US450 million ($NZ581 million), and Digital Sky Technologies, a Russian investment firm that has already sunk about $US500 million ($NZ645.4 million) into Facebook, invested $US50 million ($NZ64.5 million),

The problem I have here is already I can see misinterpretations of what I've said, which is great because when the site continues to exist in 3 years ya fucks can all say "SEE I TOLD YUO!!!1"

I'm saying that in 2-3 years it will start declining.

Well, I think it will probably plateau at some stage, but not for some time yet.

And even when that happens, online social interaction is such an important part of so many peoples' lives (more so for the young'uns than even our generation) that usage of facebook is still going to be MASSIVE. Facebook, by and large, *is* social networking and something very major will have to happen for that not to be the case....

only good if the goose can still lay, which I'd suggest bankers won't get - money money money

money in itself is of no value to FB if it leads to the sorts of dumb decisions captial investors tend to want in their online investments - refer to everything

the main problem with Facebook from an investment perspective is that its not completely proven as a business model from a monetization point of view. Clearly the website is a success etc but its free to use so there needs to be a way to turn it into money. advertising only does so much...

It depends, I've seen quite a few articles where people are cancelling their accounts as it was too time consuming ... I think it will become less popular and perhaps a little uncool in the next 3 years, like Bebo.. something else will come along. Maybe blogging or something like that will become more popular.

So, notwithstanding the evil of capitalism... who'd invest? Theoretically of course.

and therein lies the problem - investors will want a return... users care not for that element but will hate on shit (and sites) that intrudes on their behaviour

or put it this way - anyone predict the death/decline of forums online....

your logic is a bit wrong there bob, its pretty much always good for a company to be able to raise money (unless the terms are draconian of course) and obviously if the goose doesnt lay then the company has problems sure but its the investors who suck mainly. the company can potentially be refinanced revitalized.

company stuff peat cannot maintain the popularity for the service.... the bigger the $ and company structure the harder to innovate and FBs success (outside of the business side) is dependent on being able to mutate and change as users expectations and desires do - ie at the drop of a hat and preferably from the front not back

some people are going to get mega rich (cool for them) but the services future is 100% user dependant and bankers don't have a clue how to work the public (refer GFC, bonuses and their sense of dress)

Now you wait just a darn minute....

Rubbish...Facebook is far from being a fad.

Do you think all online social networking/media will disappear in 2-3 years or just Facebook?

Location based services are definitely part of the future of social networking (and yeah, Facebook Places is indeed their answer to Foursquare, Gowalla etc.)

I'm a Foursquare user and have been for ages, it's definitely gaining some traction now finally amongst the mainstream (it used to just be techies, early adopters and agency people using it here). It's massive in the States.

i'd say in 2-3 years time they will own a bunch of satellites already and will be expanding.

I love it how adamant everyone is, it reinforces to me why the world is the way it is. Also, once again, the implications that I'm saying fb will have disappeared in 3 years... *sigh*

It will evolve into many different services and perhaps not all be controlled by one single website and one single database.

Even most Foursquare users still publish their locations through Facebook. So even if they prefer using that service, the people folowing them might still be using FB to check up on them. Foursquare and all the other sites which integrate with Facebook only make Facebook stronger.

Most Foursquare users don't publish to Twitter or Facebook at all..which is good cos it gets pretty fucking annoying!'

are we talking about people who own a foursquare shop?

if only....

Foursquare is a little bit big brotherish...

Were talking about it last night, then saw on FB (Blah) has checked in at home.. then their address...

Wouldn't publish my address with it... dunno if I'd like my movements being tracked...

PS kinda agree with the three year decline theory Smiley

It's not big brotherish - only your 'friends' see your check-ins, and you can choose whether you want to publish a check-in, or whether you want to check in to a location at all. (ie, it doesn't track you automatically).

Anyone checked in from the Pelican Club yet?

I reckon it will be around for quite a while. People use it for all sorts - like game playing, where the more friends you have the better you d in the game. Games like cityville where randoms are all making friends just to get further in a game

i hope it does, if Facebook stopped running i'd go from having 400+ friends to only 1 or 2

Goldman’s Leaked Memo to Rich Investors Exposes Facebook’s Actual Earnings

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/01/goldmans_leaked_details_on_fac.html

facebook will eat itself...

that article is putting their Price Earnings ratio at 142 which is an even higher (therefore more insane) figure than I said yesterday

What is Foursquare?

Foursquare is a service that allows KrisB to become mayor of all he see's

its a location service that allows you to show your friends or whomever (via various services, fb, twitter et al) your whereabouts

foursquare.com/



unfortunately pleaserobme.com is now useless for those seeking some free gear from those who like to share their where they are (ie when they aren't home)

Why would they care?

why do people want to see your holiday snaps on FB?

god knows but some do - It has some practical uses but for most its just another 'fad' service that they will sign upto and never once use

file under people are strange

I wonder if in 10 or 20 years time people will look at current social networking in the same way we view the 80s with it's greed. "Wow, people seemed to think everyone cared about the minute details of their lives"

A tool that tells me exactly what time Kris gets to Red Bar every Thursday.

:>

gc.

we view the 80s for its greed, really?

in 10-20 years time people might be more concerned with the food/energy problems they face than social anything

I view the 80s for its pure awesomeness.

He basically lives there. I think only Alex (the bar owner) has more check-ins than Kris.

greed was a rather blunt word but yeah.
Celebration of capitalism, getting rich, ME ME ME, tacky flaunted, "it's the poor's own fault", shite confused for art, no concern for the environment yet.

so you're saying we're still in the 80s

fml

80's in NZ had 10% unemployment in the first half of the decade. only in the second half did the whole greed thing kick in big time. and then it only really lasted until late 1987 when the stockmarket crashed. Of course I was actually alive then ... so maybe I'd know.

So was bob d

yep... no work for me in the 80s... was sponsored to surf for a spell thanks to the NZ taxpayer...

good times

You saying I wasn't? Thanks

well I dunno Smiley but I'm putting forward a more realistic assessment of a 10 year period. Eg the tv series Gloss only started in 1987 and from a stylistic point of view it was representative. Hell even I was drinking champers in board rooms by that time yet a few years earlier stoned on the dole.
you had to surf for your money bob d lol I just had to go to the post office.

it wasn't easy in the mighty BOP peat, no champers, no auckland dickheads in suits (and no work)... just the dave lange surf team and cheap pot

Well I didn't really mean to get into a discussion about the finer points of the reality of what the 80s was, you surely know what I'm getting at. Perhaps in 20 years time there will be a "That 00's Show" syndicated to the Entertainment Service Providers in holographic TV, and the running gag is how everyone has to update their status every time they take a shit.

I think it's pretty disingenious to equate facebook with banal status updates. That's a part of it but it's so small as to be pretty much irrelevant imo

Perhaps it's also disingenious to equate the 80s with greed...

Great Chat.

:>

I know you are mostly being cheeky, but it raises the point that it's weird that a website's current popularity (even if it is very popular) is used as some sort of evidence towards it's future popularity. We live in very fast times...

Facebook is also agile though Smiley - you maybe surprised just how many people and in how many ways the FB is used around the world.

Plus as with all websites it's incredibly easy to track what and how people are using FB, allowing development teams to adapt.

FB is more about engineering rather than luck than you realise.

I agree with that. They keep revising the site which I think is a great thing despite the protests from those who dislike change. Although they have done themselves a bit of damage in the past - I can't be the only person who views every change they make as potentially some sort of trojan horse of new features that messes with privacy.

Everything I've read about their engineering is pretty nifty, and last year Google lost ALOT of key staff to Facebook.

Nevertheless some of the reasons I think it's days are limited as THE hub of social networking:

• Facebook has a large user base of people that don't actually like facebook. They are just waiting for something better to come along so they can drop it.

• The way in which facebook has been used over the years has changed. Lots of mini fads within the site. At some point I wonder if the whole site will become stale. It seems like a catch all for a number of different services that don't need to be served up from one place.

• It doesn't represent real-life social networks. There is plenty of room for improvement here and unless Facebook fixes up, someone else will come along and do it instead. Seriously, stop calling all my contacts "friends" for a start. It's limiting.

• The site doesn't appear to turn that much profit yet it incredibly over-valued. It already has 500m users (and growth has slowed).

• Every man on the street disagrees with me......

Here we go Smiley

http://www.slate.com/id/2290039

Not only is Fassbook here for the forseeable future (through it's sheer entrenched nature) it's going to become hugely, massively insanely rich sometime in the next 2-3 years mereckons.

funny how things work out...

I'm having to learn some of the facebook API and markup for some paid work I'll be doing. It's kind of nifty.

Anyway I shouldn't have used "fad" because that groups me with all the people that thought fb was just the next friendster, myspace etc, and I NEVER thought that. I'm flippantly writing it off because it's pretty shit for the most part and Zuckerberg to me is an accidental billionaire. Yet one day there will be people who regard him as some sort of visionary and look to him for answers of the future. Much like they do with Bill Gates who really only ripped off an existing OS and sold it to IBM with clever licensing arrangements.

So what of FB? Well they have their paws in loads bits and pieces around the web (nod to G-Dub), and I'm sure will continue to innovate ways to stick their paws in other parts - to me the killer app is their authentication system which I'll use on a website in the future. One login. Not always suitable of course but appropriate in lots of cases.

Buuuut it's still kind of shit. And things do change rapidly.

I would have thought the appeal of exclusivity could shift people ("early adopters") to a technically superior product, creating a snowball effect particulary as the old site becomes increasingly associated with laggards. And if the new site could offer some vital point of difference (can do X, or maybe has not got Y) that might be all the boost it needs.

you seem to be on it quite a bit considering it's so shit!

facebook is pretty huge. i can't think of anything else online (cept for google) as big. it's certainly changed the game quite remarkably as far as photographic supplies/processing businesses go.

my chat client logs into it automatically. Also the groups feature is used heavily by my class, we have a couple of groups (one class-wide, one project-specific) and can discuss shit. It's very handy. But yeah I'm just online a lot, such is the nature of the stuff I do.

Right, now that you're learning all this shit, go and find out what dirty shit is buried behind the "Like" button that you find on every second website now. Then you'll go straight back to hating it even more



OK what is the killer feature that FB is missing? Go gogogogogogoogogo:

That tiny little button is basically why Goldman gave them half a billion dollars - it is probably the most valuable thing on teh interwebs me reckons

care to share some thoughts?

personally I'd never go behind Like for fear of finding Hate

thats it isn't it... hate lurks behind them there buttons

HATE

Like a fucking shirt that says "Loser".
Or, I don't know, Iike..."Talk to the Hand".
Or something Iike that. Those would sell.
Or... I got these ideas, Iike a hat.
A big old hat that goes...
You know...? That's got to sell.

Consider the following scenario:
- You're NOT logged in to Facebook
- You visit a site that has the Like button
- You DON'T click the Like button
- Facebook STILL KNOWS that you (Facebook user Bob Daktari) visited that site

Like a stalker ex-girlfriend.

omg.... all my fave badger pron sites have that button

*erases self*

the underbelly of the net really has been turned to evil ain't it

How? Seems dubious.

How? Through the magic of code. It's pretty trivial.