Horses to follow

OK, with a hat tip to the poker thread and respect to Maesty and other casual punters (if there are any) this is the home to ramblings relating to anything of the thoroughbred/standardbred equine types. Specifically horses to follow, kiwi horses doing well internationally (which is one of my favourite things) and if you're still interested, the big gamble of selecting horses going through the sale ring and seeing where they end up. The aforementioned is my #1 hobby and I like to think i'm 1/2 decent at a) finding a winner on the track and b) selecting nice types in the saleyards that go on to do great things on the track. But for now we'll just focus on punting and backing winners. Cos we all like to make a buck or 3

I'll post something about a decent pony i've got shares in shortly...

Excellent! I would definitely like to know more about horses without having to do any legitimate research myself.



gc.

Haha thats the spirit

OK, late last year I coughed up some coin to buy a reasonable percentage of a horse called INFALLIBLE. It is trained way down south by G Robinson who is quite an astute trainer - small team, places her horses well, looks after them. At that point it had raced just once for an encouraging 4th. It was turned out (ie put in the paddock) as it was still growing and since its return to the track has had 4 starts for 3rd, 1st, 1st, 3rd. Happy times. Jockey, Jamie Bullard (one of the best in the South Is.) is keen on building a long term association with the horse knowing that its going to be pretty good. NB you always have to take what jockeys say with a grain of salt. So yes, good times ahead, its already paid for itself and im looking forward to making shitloads off it in winners cheques and on the punt

Its next race: Easter Saturday at Riverton Famous Easter meeting. I'll post details on that closer to the time.

--

Also, if any of you lot have questions about anything horsey or punting, fire away.

is black caviar going to be the best ever

To early to tell, but ive never seen anything like it, in terms of the way it wins its races. Its defintly the fastest sprinter i've ever seen, but no one really gives a fuck about sprinters. Its all about milers, mile & 1/4, mile & 1/2 and 2 miles (ie the Melbourne Cup) If it can step up to those distances and deal to the 'real' racehorses then it will be up there for sure.

When I was younger I worked on a race track. Hung out a lot with horsey people. Family friends with stewards, owners etc.

What I learned is this:
- Everybody won all their bets. Nobody ever talks about losing bets.
- Everything is a smokescreen. Seriously. If they're players, they don't want to spread the information. A "can't miss tip" is as likely to be bullshit as real (more likely, really)
- For the most part, the ROI of both owning and betting on horses is insanely low. There are a few people who make it work, but you're better off betting on poker or blackjack.
- The people who make money on horses are grinders. they process big numbers of stats. they look for every minor advantage whether it be track condition or temperature or whatever. it's a sabermetrics approach

I also learned NEVER to bet on the horses cos I knew a few rich punters who lost more than they won.

^^ nit ^^

lol vads, with all due respect, you worked on the gate, not in the stewards or presidents rooms, or stables, or stipes room, and you probably weren't someone that those 'in the know' really cared to pass proper information aka 'good oil' on to. Oh and I WAS a steward Anyway, Its the entertainment dollar, like betting on sports results or even poker.

And like those, only the few become - and succeed - as professionals.

I'm an 'enthusiast' and am happy to share my 'knowledge' with my fellow biggie gamblers to spread the gospel of the horse So here's an example of how I operate:

I had a $2600 collect on Friday night, after putting $100 in my phone account. I top up my account with anywhere between $50 and $150 once or twice a week, depending on whats on and how busy I am. I spend most Mondays driving around the 3 Queenstown TABs to see if any of them have enough money to pay me out I like to study form properly and have built up a good pool of knowledge with regards to racing patterns, horse breeds, ages, conformation, distances, trainers, jockeys, owners, tracks conditions & biases, which races to bet on/which to avoid, horse preperations and even the odd 'gut feeling'. So much other shit as well which I cant think of right now. Of course often im wrong, thats racing. But generally my selections are fairly close to the mark.

Consider the above collect on Friday night, courtesy of race 4 at the big Auckland Harness meeting. There was a huge first 4 pool, courtesy of it being a big race night with aussie interest (they can bet into our pools and vice versa). An ideal race to spent $10 on a first 4 bet.

I took the favourite and 5th favourite to run first and second (I know the trainers of both and like the way they've been running, their draws, times etc etc) then a bunch of other horses to run 3rd and 4th which I selected for various reasons including offering juicy odds that would bolster my collect... The end result: favourite won, 5th fav 2nd and the 2 outsiders of my 'behind' horses came in 3rd & 4th. Dividend $12000, of which I had about 22% of for my $10 investment. BOOM.

It aint that hard or rare, you just have to know what you're doing and have a wee bit of luck on your side. Dont go silly betting on everything all the time, or blowing your winnings on big stupid bets and you'll probably come out on the right side of the ledger

just tell us when, where at what to bet on plz :>

Vads = dick
pstu = horse messiah



gc.

awesome! I like having horses to follow, even if Im not betting its often more entertaining to watch than yet another meaningless Super 12/NPC/Non-warriors NRL game.

Sorry mate but it's yet again "only talk about the wins" degenerate gambling speech.
I've never heard of the people on the other side of the equation (TAB or casinos) losing money, so where does it all go?
You're better off sticking to either blackjack or poker, or the NFL based on winning-record-first-or-home-team (which gives you ~59% last time I checked, good grinding odds)

PS did you not read the bit where I mentioned knowing those people who *did* have the good oil etc? Like I said, it's a smokescreen. We had a lot of degens @ the course who made huge $$ in Auckland property development in the 80s... heard all the stories... anyway of course 87-88 happened to them. If guys who were worth tens-of-millions of dollars can't even break even at the trots, then how can you?

Because I'd got mad tips bro, maaaaaad tips.

I think you just answered your own question.

And wtf would property developers with shitloads of cash know about the intracacies of harness racing? Fuck all, thats what.

Besides, this thread is called 'Horses to Follow' not 'make millions from the punt'. Ive already pointed out that its entertainment, not a profession for the majority. Maybe you should read my posts again? Or would you like me to retype in baby-speak?

Check out the poker thread dude, 95% of it is people bitching about losing all the time.. And we're good at it :>

Oh bro shipped you that $$ the other day :>

Haha cheers

Oh and btw vads, ROI for a professional blackjack player will be very low too - mostly around 1-2% depending on house rules around how much of the shoe they discard, how many decks they use etc.

Vads - please fuck off out of this thread please.



gc.

Pstu, I think yuo are giving people false hope/dumbing down horse racing there buddy

I know people who know people (high up horse owners and trainers) so have 'information' and stats etc. They hardly ever collect though and if they do they are definately on the wrong side of the ledger overall.

Only a donk will read this and think it's easy to punt on the horses?

2 nits ITT now! :/

Totally.

err..




With all due respect, you're taking 3rd & 4th hand info as gospel? And everyone has access to the stats. Its deciphering it, that's the trick. I feel for those people, they sound like Vads really onto it property mates.

Out of interest, who is the trainer?

Pstu- Fairly close to the mark = Losing

3rd and 4th hand? Who would be first hand? The horse?



How often do you here "Here is a hot tip" or "I have a hot tip" and they never come in or run around the track backwards. It's a fucking complete lottery.

jesus fucking christ. The thread's called HORSES TO FOLLOW not HOW TO MAKE MILLIONS ON THE PUNT. Unless its black caviar or auckland reactor, no horse wins every race.

You're now in the same category as vads. Ask yourself, is that a good place to be?

You didn't answer my question.

your own judgement.

BUT HOW MUCH DID YOU LOSE

Me? Less that I can afford to At the moment though i've got over 2k in my back pocket thanks to last Friday night. Haters can stick to buying lotto tickets or spending their ENTERTAINMENT DOLLAR on booze and hookers imo.

heh trix is making reference to a retarded comment from non believers that winning poker players have to deal with on a regular basis

Lazydog...its NOT a lottery, that the whole point that dfifferiates gmes like poker and horse racing from true "gambling" pursuits like lotto poker machines and roulette

This whole mantra "gambling is bad" is an admittadly safe one, but its incorrect when applied broadly. It IS possible to be succesful at things like horse racing, poker and sports betting becuase there is a SKILL factor involved. This is such an obvious fact yet people with their "gambling is bad" blinkers on completely miss it.

This phenonomen is amazing really, people will acknowledge that poker has a skill element yet when I explain Im a long term winning player I often feel a shift in ther attitude and they look like they are expecting me any minute to ask them if I can borrow $100

I blame the presbertian ministers that colonised this country and instlled a deep rooted belief that gambling is somehow dirty and always wrong, despite the fact that just about everything in life IS a gamble

Anyway.....As stated so many times. We DO NOT expect to make money on pssstts picks, that would just be a nice bonus. What we want is some inside info on horses so we can follow them and maybe make a more informed punt if we feel in the mood

haters

Stop coming in and fucking this thread up you cunts. We're not simpletons who are going to go and sink the house on pstu's next hot tip. Get a fucking grip!

EDIT: And this thread was started at the request of a fellow biggie sports forum regular, so kindly shut the fuck up and stop taking it away from the OP.



gc.

Thanks guys

OK I have a tiny share in 2 horses racing at Riverton (meeting 6) this afternoon.

1. Le Vin. Race 7 #1. Is quite a decent horse that's been plagued by injuries. I haven't heard from the trainer but his class should see him run near the top end of the field. Worth a sneaky place bet. Im putting $10place on him.

2. Ana Dubwai. Race 9 # 10. Again, has shown some promise with its only win being very impressive, putting 5 lengths on the rest of the field over the last 100m of the race. Today she gets in with a good draw, a light weight and track conditions to suit. Here's what the trainer said about her (stable name is chloe): We have Chloe in to race at Riverton on Thursday. She is nominated for the 3 & 4 year old 1600m. There are 12 nominations. She will be well down in the weights. We are going to put Toni Direen(4kg claim) on again. We were very happy with Chloe's run at Wingatui. Her work since has been very good. Now we need a good barrier draw.

So she got the good barrier draw. I'm a bit more confident with her than the other one so am going $10 each way. The race is at 4.20pm

Holy fuck just checked the odds, shes currently at $40-1. Woot

Maybe we need to change the forums name to Sports, Fitness, and Gambling.

GTFO nits

I quite like the idea that there is actually just a small number of us nattering away together in here. Not hugely fussed on the subject matter as long as it's loosely tied to competition. I'm just bitter that the poker thread is so long and I can't understand it.



gc.

/remembers the days when Current Affairs nerds complained bitterly about Sports being in there


CA = Ghost town now! WUT! (it was basically a War forum anyway)

LE VIN WON

Paid $7.40 for the win
$2.20 for the place

/waits for the haters

.

Steroids IMO

3rd favourite in a 12 horse field with 8 pigs


Come on mate, hardly spectaular

.

I actually find the suggestion that a horse I have shares in has been drugged incredibly offensive dude, even with your .

And your eating humble pie/jealously thinly veiled as a troll utterly reeks.

Muppet.

I am confused.

unitab (http://unitab.com/racing/2011-4-14/race-ZS9.html) is offering 9 to win

tab (https://www.tab.co.nz/racing/#2011-04-14-m6-r9) is offering 26 to win

MASSIVE difference?

Does that just mean I should be with the TAB if I was to bet?

Yeah mate always go with the best odds.

Generally though the markets even up approaching race start time.

I'm in Australia (Victoria) so can't use TAB. So it doesn't matter really.

So no matter when you bet you get the odds at race start? Surely not?

I am a total betting newbie obviously.

There are two types of odds available on most races:

1. Fixed odds. Where the odds are set at a price when you place your bet.

2. Market odds. These fluctuate up to the start of the race and if you win the odds you get are those displayed at the start of the race aka 'tote close'.

For example a horse may be paying $10 on fixed odds and $8 on the tote (market odds) 10 minutes before a race starts. Obv in that case you'd go fixed, or whatever is higher. Market odds can shorten or lengthen before a race depending on the weight of money put on the horse. So if someone puts say $2k on that horse it will shorten into about $6. Less money = odds will drift, more money odds will tighten.

Thanks!

Of course poker has a skill element
but the chance element is higher than in other ways to earn money i.e. a normal job.

And gambling addiction is pretty well known... the net social benefit: cost of gambling is almost entirely negative, yet for working it's almost entirely positive.

Like I said, when a simple rule like "better record, if equal record then home team" can actually beat just about every NFL tipster... and actually return a good ROI... then all thise punting research is pointless.

Except poker machines CAN be played "skilfully" by syndicates who know how the machines work, can monopolise seats with very slow cash input, then will swamp them with massive inputs when a jackpot is due.

Ana Dubwai ran a battling 7th. I dont think the rider suits the horse, i.e. needs someone a bit more experienced on board that can really push her home., That and I think she needs a spell.

lolololololol

wtf

idiot
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/110215_tuesday_morning_quarterback&sportCat=nfl

Sorry, where's the part where I can back the better/home team and maintain a positive ROI? Nowhere, because if it were that bloody easy then everyone would be doing it? Really vads. You fail pretty hard with your gambling views

Extrmely. I could qoute just about anything you have written in this thread vadz and easily point out how terrible it is. You show no rational judgement whatsoever and instead just spout anti-gambling garbage thats clearly been drilled into you at a young age. How about using that big brain of yours instead of letting *parts of it* use you

Hahahahahaha



gc.

looooool

Standard Vads base level reductionist nonsense!

:>

gc.

Did you read the part where he pointed out that system (and that post didn't have Better team then Home but other Easterbrook posts do) beat EVERY SINGLE TIPSTER?

And nobody does it because everybody thinks they can do better. The fact is as n gets bigger, you're better off ignoring detail and focusing on big picture things.

Reductionism works though.
Inferior minds require detail, better minds see patterns/links, think holistically, and see analogies
If you dispute that second sentence... study your science more.

If I gave you a coin that turned heads 60% of the time, why would you ever bother calling tails (the Easterbrook NFL theorem)

Looking forward to Easter Saturday, i've got shares in 3 horses racing at the famous Riverton Easter Races:

INFALLIBLE, Race 5 # 1. https://www.tab.co.nz/racing/#2011-04-23-m6-r5

- Top weight, in form and has the South Island's best Jockey on. He's a real good horse and should run in the first 3. Im a wee bit worried about his weight and the track might be a bog, which I don't think he'll like that much. UPDATE: Just got off the phone with the trainer who specifically told me not to tell anyone how well he worked this morning (you guys dont count ) Seemed pretty bullish of his chances, but did mention a weariness about the track. Fuck im excited

LE VIN, Race 6 # 11. https://www.tab.co.nz/racing/#2011-04-23-m6-r6

- Won really nicely at this track last start (as you know). He's drawn out in the carpark so that will make his job quite tough. But the way he won last week was very impressive so i'm picking a top 4 finish is on the cards.

ANA DUBWAI, Race 9 # 15. https://www.tab.co.nz/racing/#2011-04-23-m6-r9

- Went ordinary here last start. First time over distance so it could go either way, she'll be at nice odds so only worth a gold coin donation to the TAB I think.

There's another one I like in the Riverton Cup. https://www.tab.co.nz/racing/#2011-04-23-m6-r8 Its called ISHIABEEL. No weight, good draw, loves the conditions, is crying out for the distance and is bred to do so. I'll be putting a hundy each way on at least :>

Sweet will get somethnig on Infallible and watch the race for sure

im putting my house on infallible you better be right

You dont have a house

well played, well played..

Well was a pretty interesting race on Saturday, INFALLIBLE got back in the running (3 back on the inside), then got held up coming around the home turn, had to go wide, then switch ground twice and really only got going in the last 150m for a fast finishing 5th. The head on view of his run is crazy wtf stuff. Pretty spectacular run considering he carried the top weight on an off track.

Next its off to Riccarton in Christchurch for a $17,000 race on the premier race day (7th May). Stick with, he'll pay a bit more next time (maybe) so hopefully we can get some bikkies :>>

Ya had $12 on him but forgot to watch the race so tx for that description, what was he paying as favourite?

Think it was around the $5 mark.

Christchurch in May will be good, the race is over more distance, which he's crying out for - his aunty ran 3rd in a Sydney Cup over 3200m! So pretty impressive he's winning sprints over 1200m. Will also carry a bit less weight. With a good run, he'll right amongst them at the finish

Oh and what a HORRIBLE easter on the punt. Couldnt get anything going, bloody nosed out (literally) of 3 big first 4s (thats picking 1st thru 4th in the correct order), with one payout promising $2100 if the finishing post had been 1 stride further. fuck.

Thats racing!

Thats gambling.

Gee thanks Einstein for your wonderful input.

Now fuck off unless you're genuinely interested in the content of this thread.

Thanks.

When you post in MY sports forum you have some respect OK. Bloody hell man.

Well if you don't wnt to get burned, keep your beak out of it. Not rocket science dude.

OK Racing again on Saturday...

M6 race 2 11:45 4)infallible. Worth a cheeky each way bet. Toughest field he's faced though. Trainer reports all is well so i'm making the 12hr drive round trip to CHC to see him go.

Well, went on a big trip to Christchurch to find out the nag had a bout of colic during the week and didn't travel well. Add that to the stupidly wet track and we didn't really have a show at winning on Saturday. That said, he did pick himself up a bit and ran on nicely at the end. Out for a spell in the paddock now and will come back in the spring, bigger better stonger... faster!

There are some other horses running around at the moment that have caught the eye, will post soon

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/league/news/article.cfm?c_id=79&objectid=10725516

Just for Vads. :>

haha

So im super fucked off. One of the horses im in a syndicate on won at odds of 17-1 yesterday. Thats great, but the syndicate manager didnt send out any updates that the horse was even racing, let aone that he was going so well he was a good chance of winning. I called yesterday morning to enquoire what the situation was, no response. Shit ----> fan when I get in touch with them!

Stink 1...17-1!

Basically cost me $1100 ($50 each way bet). Feel like sending the bitch an invoice!

NEIGH.

Here, follow my horse: