Hanover Finance.. repayment offer / changes

Re: Hanover Finance's deal last year to reply investors and the news this week that they wont be able to make the agreement...

I reckon, since the history of the intewebs is almost permanent that we should put some opinions on the likelihood of and amount of repayment - and then can see in a couple of year whether someone on biggie is worth listening to re: investment stuff.

Personally, seeing the repayment go from 100c down to 70c in the dollar - it seems like such an arbitrary number. Yet throughout the last year since the proposal nothing much has been said indicating a shortfall. You could view this as the people running it not actually knowing their financial position at all and perhaps should warrant a much much shorter leash. After all Mark Hotchin has still been raking in the money - on businesses/investments he was only able to make because of the money invested in his other companies.

I'll put in a opptimistic 37 cents in the dollar

finance companies - where crime does pay

i resurrect the photo I took a couple of years ago well before all this shit came out.

Hanover Hangmen



these guys are really working the rules.
it is difficult to legislate against stupidity, there is so much bad press about this deal , will be interesting to see the results of the s/h vote.

Gaynor doesnt hold back in this morning's Herald

Hanover Finance is one of the worst examples of poor corporate governance and the country's inadequate securities markets' regulatory regime...Hotchin and Watson were able to highly leverage their property activities through Hanover Finance and make financial killings if these ventures were successful. Hanover Finance investors bore most of the losses if these ventures failed

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10610630&pnum=0


And yet surprisingly he concludes that it may be a win/win situation for Allied Farmers shareholders - which is what Hanover investors will become if the deal goes through

this sort of advertising is awesome

is good

frankly, when someone is as uneducated as to say this

I am not surprised that they fell into this mess

harry

so they took the lure of Allied Farmers

not surprising really,drowning men and straws - some want liquidity quite desperately i imagine. even at much reduced value.
but also its quite possible those who wait a few years might get most of their money back.

but the director from GPG (Brierleys company) who dumped their 4.4% of Allied just the other day said it was
"like taking a pile of custard from one plate and putting it on another" meaning how unknown the value of the assets was.

From when the shares are issued it'll be a massive price dive as tons ditch them for some (any) cash. Allied itself is down in share value something like 85% on a year ago as it is... I reckon shares will get to less than 10c...

LOL
Allied Farmers shares have plunged 31 per cent, falling 6 cents from 19 cents to 13 cents after a trading halt was lifted at 11.45am.

From Herald website:
"These shares have been sold by existing Allied Farmers shareholders, since Hanover investors who voted yesterday to accept a $400 million deal to convert the company's loan book into Allied shares will not get their new shares till next week."

Pretty crazy when you think about it. The new shareholders will dilute the existing Allied shareholdings down to only 3% of the total shareholding.

A share-price/performance graph of the last two years... Allied (blue) vs the NZX 50 (red)

interesting (from a technical analysis perspective) to follow this too.
over the last 6 months the chart of Allied has formed a bearish descending triangle. to understand what that is see here

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/descendingtriangle.asp

as per the standard scenario of a descending triangle once price broke throught the lower edge of the triangle price escalated downwards giving a brilliant shorting opportunity

Aaaaannnd they've gone down to 10c now.

The deal struck up basically valued Hannover investorments at about 72c in the dollar. As of today they now have an investment worth about 35c in the dollar.

If they'd gone to bankruptcy instead they would have probably got around this much plus a chance to follow proceedings to have Hotchin banned as a director... doh!

so does my guess of 37 cents get me anything

a house on parati drive perchance?

People forget that they were investing in the company (not hotchins/watsons private interests/companies). How many investors looked at hanovers financial statements or paid someone independent to look at them?? Very little i would say.

It's down to 35c in the dollar on original investment now....

yes theres a heap of bad news coming out of Alllied Farmers now... write downs and receiverships of the assets (sic) they bought off Hanover. It would seem very unlikely , even in the long term, that Hanover investors will ever get their money back. And what a tragedy for original Allied investors as well.

It only reinforces my opinion with financial markets - never ever fight the trend.... once a chart shows a continued slope in the wrong direction , just GTFO no matter how painful it will be. 13c wouldnt feel so bad now its gone down to 7.5 would it?

and yeh kudos to you bob_d! dunno about a house on paritai. maybe a house from a monopoly set?

so its all to late for Hanover investors but one piece of useful news out of Brian Gaynors Herald article this morning is that "Hotchin and Watson are still raising money from the public through FAI Money, formerly FAI Finance, and its accounting policies and disclosures are just as poor as Hanover's. ...In addition, KPMG was the auditor of Hanover Finance and is the auditor of FAI Money.


So .... beware the FAI

lambs fleece slaughter

Wohoo... 3 or 4 cents in the dollar anyone?

It's almost funny that most financial commentary about this said the Allied deal was sour from the time it was mooted because of the way Hanover assets were values. How then could all the investors be convinced it was a good move other than by deception?

"Has the cabinet asked why the market watchdogs have not recommended they put Allied Farmers into statutory management?

It is increasingly clear that the former Hanover investors who bought into last year's "rescue deal" are about to lose the last remaining threads in their shirts. In any sensible environment the regulators would have blown the whistle by now."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/fran-osullivan/news/article.cfm?a_id=13&objectid=10665123

finance companies clusterfuck