but it's not so much that the opposition might get elected, because you're talking a massive difference in votes 69.69% for the ANC and 12.37 for the DA (at the last election). It's about whether the ANC, South Africa Communist Party, and Council of South African Trade Unions (who are in a formal alliance), will break their alliance. And then whether the ANC will fracture further. The ANC needs to break up before there can be a real alternative. Even if there is a massive swing against the ANC now, they'll still win easily. Also, it's unlikely that people will vote for another party. It's more likely that they just won't vote (voter turnout has been dropping in SA)