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[quote]
Its not all over yet eh?

Personally, let em burn. Wink
[quote]
SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? IS THE WORLD GOING TO END? ARE AMERICANS GOING TO DEMAND TO BE PAID IN THE POWERFUL NZ DOLLAR FROM NOW ON? IS THE USA GOING TO CAPITULATE, WHITHER AND DIE A SLOW DEATH AT THE HANDS OF THE MIGHTY PESO?
[quote]
Might wanna take your finger of 'shift' bro Smile
[quote]
It has a ripple affect...

NZ is somewhat exposed to the tainting of the markets..
NZ Property market to be precise.

Was curious to know the thoughts of people who are more clued up about this and would take this thread a little more seriously! Neutral


S xx
[quote]
Erm, I was being serious Confused

Look, if people want to borrow more than they can afford and take big risks when the economic cycle is about to trend downwards its their own stupid fault.

Its blatantly obvious that houses have been overpriced and property developers have been out to make massive profits from some really dodgy projects.

Finally, NZ won't be too badly hit. Well, most of us IMO as our banks are pretty safe.

Exports/Imports on the other hand...

Summary: I see this as being a good thing. In a couple of years lots of us will be laughing Smile
[quote]
pstu - comment was not aimed at you Smile


This "cycle" has not just developed over the last couple years...
Apparently the demise is going to make financial history!
(It's amazing what you can learn from Newstalk ZB :> )




S xx
[quote]
I WAS ALSO BEING SERIOUS.
[quote]
Well in the short term, it means a huge reduction in lending capacities for banks. Worst case scenario, it becomes a depression based on credit drying up. The job market in the US has been pretty rocky for a couple of years now, and when people get laid off, they have to rely on credit, which they won't have. Big job cuts are now hitting the financial sector ( people who used to make a lot of money), and when their dollars are no longer purchasing goods, then it will hit other industries.

Ultimately, the US is looking at some serious inflation over the next two years. On the bright side, this is a huge wake up call for all the people who are in debt up to their ears because the credit card companies and mortgage brokers told them it was ok.
[quote]
JUST COS MY CAPS LOCK KEY IS BROKEN DOESNT MEAN I AM TAKING THE PISS.
[quote]
I understand and appreciate that this all seems to come from gluttony - what concerns me is the affect it has on the rest of the world!

UK have also assisted in a couple "bailouts"...

Surely that'll have some sort of influence over NZ?

Although NZ do seem to have quite the independant infrastructure/economy?



S xx
[quote]
What I want to know is when the property market is going to bottom out? Will is crash or just continue to drop steadily? ...I want to go bargain hunting. Smile
[quote]
Well it's interesting - it seems to be the "will of the people" to not handle the bailout. It was voted down (mainly by Republicans) because they were afraid they wouldn't be voted back in in a few weeks if they supported it.
The question is, are the people well enough informed of the consequences of their decisions? Socialising bad debt is an awful thing to do, but the rigor mortis of liquidity may be a whooooooooooooole lot worse...
[quote]
I've heard it will be anything from now to 18 months. Just check the property price index trend line. Its gone gangbusters over the last 5 years (like a syscraper) and at the moment its probably about .8 of one of those 5 years on the downward side of said skyscraper. I'd go with the 18 months. Smile
[quote]
the biggest problem i can forsee happening (in my completely uneducated opinion) is America having no cash for imports, (which is currently $4.21b per year, 11% of our total exports) but i guess that will be negated by our free trade with China.
All Empires must fall, i feel sorry for the next president having to clean up Georges mess lol.
[quote]
Not that I understand most of this thread but

garethw said:
the rigor mortis of liquidity


is officially my favourite quote of the day.
[quote]
pstu said:
I've heard it will be anything from now to 18 months. Just check the property price index trend line. Its gone gangbusters over the last 5 years (like a syscraper) and at the moment its probably about .8 of one of those 5 years on the downward side of said skyscraper. I'd go with the 18 months. Smile


yeh, i've been advised to wait 18 months before buying another, im actually quite excited about the possible bargains that will be around.
[quote]
Miss_Minx said:
Not that I understand most of this thread but

garethw said:
the rigor mortis of liquidity


is officially my favourite quote of the day.

Laughing I hope your day gets better! Very Happy
[quote]
um, why do people think the large scale structural changes that will result from a collapse of the banking sector are a bad thing.


Structural change could be a good thing


and sure, some people might have a rough time, but you can't make an omlette without breaking a few eggs.

The simple fact of the matter is, this will ONLY affect the global rich. To most of the worlds population, this will make absolutely no difference to their lives.
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
The simple fact of the matter is, this will ONLY affect the global rich. To most of the worlds population, this will make absolutely no difference to their lives.

Don't know about that. They won't be able to get home loans, jobs will disappear as capital backing for companies dries up etc etc.
It's always the poorer "less-involved-in-the-market" that end up getting shat on in these situations.
[quote]
exciting times.....my understanding is that NZers have a real problem with living their lives in debt and generally spending money they don't have, so when is our economy going to cave in on itself?
[quote]
I can't believe what i'm about to say. Neil, I agree with you 100%.
[quote]
garethw said:
neil_armstrong said:
The simple fact of the matter is, this will ONLY affect the global rich. To most of the worlds population, this will make absolutely no difference to their lives.

Don't know about that. They won't be able to get home loans, jobs will disappear as capital backing for companies dries up etc etc.
It's always the poorer "less-involved-in-the-market" that end up getting shat on in these situations.


There is also some truth to this... House prices are falling so they will become more accessible to those who save money rather than spend what they don't have/can't afford.

"these situations" GW, you speak as though it happens often Laughing
[quote]
garethw said:
neil_armstrong said:
The simple fact of the matter is, this will ONLY affect the global rich. To most of the worlds population, this will make absolutely no difference to their lives.

Don't know about that. They won't be able to get home loans, jobs will disappear as capital backing for companies dries up etc etc.
It's always the poorer "less-involved-in-the-market" that end up getting shat on in these situations.


The global poor don't get home loans. So nothing changed on that front.
[quote]
btw GW, I'm talking actual poor people here. The kind of poor that make up most of the world, not the kind of poor that you might have seen e.g. a person on the whole in NZ who's income in still in the top 20% of the world.
[quote]
Global poor now? I agree it's not going to have immediate impact on those under the poverty line, but it will really hit those people inbetween that and the elite.

Capital and liquidity is stopping flowing. The rich can actually ride through that as they don't need it. But companies can't get capital to stay in business. Jobs dry up, salaries go backwards, the "middle class" get laid off, spending decreases and the cycle keeps going. The Great Depression didn't just "hurt the rich and everyone else was fine". It did the opposite.
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
btw GW, I'm talking actual poor people here. The kind of poor that make up most of the world, not the kind of poor that you might have seen e.g. a person on the whole in NZ who's income in still in the top 20% of the world.

OK fair call, (except for the sneering arrogance of "not the poor you might have seen"Wink
[quote]
BREAKING NEWS
NZ stockmarket opens 4.3pc down... details soon
[quote]
garethw said:

OK fair call, (except for the sneering arrogance of "not the poor you might have seen"Wink


Sorry, I've just seen some whack ideas posted on biggie regarding rich/poor e.g. somebody claiming that 100k p.a. is not rich
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
garethw said:

OK fair call, (except for the sneering arrogance of "not the poor you might have seen"Wink


Sorry, I've just seen some whack ideas posted on biggie regarding rich/poor e.g. somebody claiming that 100k p.a. is not rich

Yeah true dat (and I just wanted to use sneering arrogance in a sentence).
But I can't buy that new BMW I have my eye on so must be poor - it's science.
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
Sorry, I've just seen some whack ideas posted on biggie regarding rich/poor e.g. somebody claiming that 100k p.a. is not rich


it isn't if you're up to your eyeballs in debt and lending rates go up and your income in real terms goes down...way down
[quote]
Night Rider said:
BREAKING NEWS
NZ stockmarket opens 4.3pc down... details soon

strange daze

quote:
The New Zealand stock exchange has slumped this morning, falling 4.3 per cent on opening. It is the first of the world's exchanges to open after the shock congressional rejection of the US Govt bank bailout plan this morning.

About 10 minutes after the NZX opened at 10am today, the benchmark NZSX-50 index was down 137.46 points or 4.3 percent to 3051.08.

Among major stocks, Telecom was down 16c or 5.8 percent early to $2.62, Contact Energy was down 34c or 4.1 percent to $7.95, and Fletcher Building lost 36c or 5.2 percent to $6.55.

By 10am the NZ dollar was down to around US67.15c against the greenback, having been as high as US67.90c soon after the failure of the bailout to get the nod.


weird scenes inside the gold mine
[quote]
Night Rider said:


strange daze



I just got that. Laughing
[quote]
There are plenty of people with tons of skillz in this area who thought the straight bailout suggested was not a good idea - not in the least because it was portrayed as the only save by some of those in the worst trouble - frantic self preservation perhaps and not quite so for the good of all.

The main thing about this is was it would be fast - immediate almost - but it doesn't actually guarantee that the loans would definitely recover, many could still fail. Likewise, the speed many wanted to push this through opened the door for discovering serious failings or deception much later by the banks.

I don't know why they can't quickly sort mortgage owners into groups (by amount owed, rough risk etc) and individually allocate a fund for each at the home-owner end which guarantees their mortgage. In the least it'd prevent the risk of the rort the banks might get up to.

R
[quote]
you mean like get a company list S&P to give mortgages ratings, like AAA etc...

hmmm, that just sounds like it might work!


sounds familiar though... not sure why
[quote]
RobW said:

The main thing about this is was it would be fast - immediate almost - but it doesn't actually guarantee that the loans would definitely recover, many could still fail.


and the Fed have put at least 400 billion into the market over the last year to try and slow the slide, but that hasnt helped. So why all of a sudden would double that fix the problem? I guess without that money put in the decline would have happened much faster tho.
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
sounds familiar though... not sure why


Herein lies the problem I guess... An industry which deceived, fudged and routinely offloaded bundled of loans to the point of collapse through their own mismanagement somehow wants to be trusted to give advise on its own rescue.

Smells a bit fishy for something which has absolutely no guarantees of working as simply as they seem to be claiming.

R
[quote]
I want to hear what Peat has to say. Since he will probably know more about it than most.
[quote]
Wahoo ! Depression inc Very Happy
[quote]
man,...how can republicans fuck the world up more....

nuclear war maybe,

fuckers.
[quote]
Excessive lending / spending / failing / blah blah blah blah

I gave my opinion in another thread......cbf anymore
[quote]
surely they will just suggest reganising things to get out of a potentiall recession?

- reduce the growth of government spending,
- reduce marginal tax rates on income from labor and capital,
- reduce government regulation of the economy,
- control the money supply to reduce inflation.

Will be interesting to see what the presidential candidates have to say about this tomorrow...
[quote]
It's hard to imagine that this crisis won't impact the rest of the economy.
Another thing i find weird is hows its developed slowly over time - sub-prime mortgages became a problem more than a year ago now.
[quote]
CAPITALISM HAS FAILED

VIVA LA REVOLUCION!
[quote]
elro said:
- reduce government regulation of the economy,


This caused this in the first place.
[quote]
elro said:
surely they will just suggest reganising things to get out of a potentiall recession?

- reduce the growth of government spending,
- reduce marginal tax rates on income from labor and capital,
- reduce government regulation of the economy,
- control the money supply to reduce inflation.

Senator McCain? Is that you?!
[quote]
i'd put it in this sort of perspective, if I was a taxpayer and my tax was being used to bail out stupid marketing mistakes, i'd let em suffer....

Then use some savings to start a stock portfolio when they are at their weakest
[quote]
I don't really see how this bailout is any different to individual welfare.

Individuals get into a situation where they need welfare through their own mistakes; same as companies.
[quote]
LordOfTheStrings said:
i'd put it in this sort of perspective, if I was a taxpayer and my tax was being used to bail out stupid marketing mistakes, i'd let em suffer....

Then use some savings to start a stock portfolio when they are at their weakest


even if it is ultimately you and the rest of the world that WILL suffer.

Its not as straight forward as "oh yeh its just the fat cats on wall street."
[quote]
vadinho said:
I don't really see how this bailout is any different to individual welfare.

Individuals get into a situation where they need welfare through their own mistakes; same as companies.

Because with individuals it's part of the social contract - you are paying taxes and being represented so that those nets are there.
For companies, that's not part of the social contract at all.
[quote]
garethw said:
vadinho said:
I don't really see how this bailout is any different to individual welfare.

Individuals get into a situation where they need welfare through their own mistakes; same as companies.

Because with individuals it's part of the social contract - you are paying taxes and being represented so that those nets are there.
For companies, that's not part of the social contract at all.


Companies pay taxes
And companies are regarded as legal persons

:>

And this is coming from a leftwinger...

The fact is, sure, these companies are in trouble because of greed. But so is that guy on welfare because he's too lazy to work, and who needs extra help because he wastes his cash on luxuries.
[quote]
I don't neccesarily agree with it Smile I don't really know much about economics at all as I haven't done much reading- but I would say I lean towards a more keynesian style (like the latin countries prior to the influence of the chicago school in those areas)

I read this today - so it will be interesting to see what comes up in the next debate

http://solutionsday2008.com/blog/2008/09/get-the-politicians-out-of-the-economy-recipe-for-sound-economic-growth.html

So Econimsts or Finanical people - what would you suggest that America did in the next few months to reduce the effects of recession? Smile
[quote]
pray to the god they have been fighting wars for?
[quote]
Realise that it's not a REAL recession
Productive capacity is exactly the same
It's just perception management. Artificial cash. Complex financial instruments.
[quote]
UPDATE:


quote:
Monday's plummet knocked out approximately $1.2 trillion in market value


http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/09/29/us.congress.bailout.deal/index.html


S xx
[quote]
virgo1 said:
Night Rider said:


strange daze



I just got that. Laughing


you gotta love it when the doors of perception open wide don't you? Wink
[quote]
Matix* said:
I want to hear what Peat has to say. Since he will probably know more about it than most.


cash is king/buyers' market

Matix* said:
man,...how can republicans fuck the world up more....

nuclear war maybe,

fuckers.


cue Chavez stage left

quote:
President Hugo Chavez said yesterday that Venezuela would develop a nuclear reactor for peaceful purposes in another challenge to Washington just days after Russia offered nuclear assistance to the socialist Latin American leader.

"In Venezuela we are interested in development of nuclear energy, of course for peaceful purposes, for medical purposes, for purposes of electricity generation," Chavez said.
[quote]
the best thing to come out of this is that the presidential race is now turning into a shit fight

the gloves are coming off and the bar room brawlin' begins
[quote]
I don't understand why they needed a bill and a vote from the senate to pass it. I was under the impression the Fed already had the power to purchase bad debt from commercial banks.
[quote]
Matix* said:
even if it is ultimately you and the rest of the world that WILL suffer.

Its not as straight forward as "oh yeh its just the fat cats on wall street."


It won't make a difference to most of the world.
[quote]
Rival said:
I don't understand why they needed a bill and a vote from the senate to pass it. I was under the impression the Fed already had the power to purchase bad debt from commercial banks.


Whether they can or can't buy it, there is still issue of where they would get the 700 mil from...
[quote]
and also a thing to note. it's not just corporate greed, it's also personal greed on the part of the home owners

if for example, I was to buy a house for 500k, and then the market crashed and my house was now worth 300k, then I could just stop paying my mortgage. Sure, the bank would take my house and sell, but I wouldn't have to pay off that loan any more. And if the bank made a loss on the house, it wouldn't be my problem.

It's like a one-way bet. If house prices go up, I sell and take the profits. If house prices go down, I walk away from the loan and let the bank take the loss.
[quote]
Wouldn't you have to declare bankrupcy in a case like that though?

You can't just go "Oh, no, I've decided not to pay this mortgage anymore" without some repercussions (other than lose of house), surely?
[quote]
*Disclaimer: I know nothing about economics and am relaying an opinion I heard at a stag party on the weekend, while drinking beer and winning poker*

Apparently in Norway or Sweden a few years ago a similar thing happened and rather than just buying out the companies, the government offered to buy up shares in the companies until they were solvent again, and then sold them off to get their money back. Worked a charm and sounds like a much better idea to me.
[quote]
Insanity said:
Wouldn't you have to declare bankrupcy in a case like that though?

You can't just go "Oh, no, I've decided not to pay this mortgage anymore" without some repercussions (other than lose of house), surely?


Sure it fucks your credit rating, but you don't have to be bankrupt to do and the bank can't come after you for the excess. Not in the US anyway. In the rest of the world, yes. But not in the US
[quote]
apparently something like 30% of people that lose their houses don't even contact their bank. They just mail the house key back to the bank.
[quote]
ohh...

Declaring bankruptcy applies at a state level BTW.

Razz

Worst case scenario you declare bankruptcy and move states.
[quote]
also, depending on your exactly situation, it's perfectly possible to default on your home loan for a 500k house, take no loss (except the interest payments you've made), and then get another home loan and buy an equivalent house for 300k. Although, something like that is only really achievable with hindsight and a crystal ball :>
[quote]
NZ shares rally after early plunge

edgy bidniss
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
garethw said:

OK fair call, (except for the sneering arrogance of "not the poor you might have seen"Wink


Sorry, I've just seen some whack ideas posted on biggie regarding rich/poor e.g. somebody claiming that 100k p.a. is not rich


That was me Razz though it is if you are comparing it to people with none at all I suppose.
[quote]
sparkymo said:


That was me Razz though it is if you are comparing it to people with none at all I suppose.


well, it is comparing it to most people in the world. It's more then 99% of the people in the world earn
[quote]
where is the other 1%?
[quote]
vadinho said:


Companies pay taxes
And companies are regarded as legal persons

:>

And this is coming from a leftwinger...

The fact is, sure, these companies are in trouble because of greed. But so is that guy on welfare because he's too lazy to work, and who needs extra help because he wastes his cash on luxuries.


The guy on welfare gets a subsistence living.
[quote]
Are you trolling neil?
[quote]
LOL

[quote]
gummi_bear said:
LOL


Laughing "Remain in the protective cocoon of academia"
[quote]
sparkymo said:
where is the other 1%?


Africa, Asia, South America
[quote]
Jono said:
Are you trolling neil?


no
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
sparkymo said:
where is the other 1%?


Africa, Asia, South America


so how much is 'rich' in those areas?

*genuine question!*
[quote]
do you realise that in large parts of Africa something like 20% of the population survive on less than 500 USD/year?

Even in a relatively rich African country like South Africa, about 50% of the population lives on less than 10 000 USD/year.
[quote]
vadinho said:
Realise that it's not a REAL recession
Productive capacity is exactly the same
It's just perception management. Artificial cash. Complex financial instruments.


Even if productive capacity remains the same, purchasing power will decline
[quote]
heresy said:
vadinho said:
Realise that it's not a REAL recession
Productive capacity is exactly the same
It's just perception management. Artificial cash. Complex financial instruments.


Even if productive capacity remains the same, purchasing power will decline


Again, perception. We are so caught up by our paradigm that we can't step away and consider what has actually occurred.

Economics is simple. The fact that we have such insanely complicated financial instruments shows how much we have complicated it.

Money is a means of exchange, and has no inherent value.
[quote]
vadinho said:
Money is a means of exchange, and has no inherent value.


Coins do Razz Infact afaik they have MORE inherent value than their stated value heh
[quote]
Yaksha said:
vadinho said:
Money is a means of exchange, and has no inherent value.


Coins do Razz Infact afaik they have MORE inherent value than their stated value heh


An inherent value represented in monetary terms? Circular reasoning much?
[quote]
For what it's worth, I couldn't agree more with Vadz on this.

These type of financial disasters are rooted in a construction, a shared imagination of the masses :>
[quote]
vadinho said:
Again, perception. We are so caught up by our paradigm that we can't step away and consider what has actually occurred.


The panic arising from the possible/probable domino-effect collapse will affect some average households, depending on where they've invested their money. It will also affect other entities, as backers withdraw their funding from their economy and find safer places for it (govt bonds, precious metals). I do see what you're getting at, and I agree to a point.

vadinho said:
Economics is simple. The fact that we have such insanely complicated financial instruments shows how much we have complicated it.


Couldn't agree more. Some of these instruments being traded make my head spin.

either way, this is bloody interesting stuff.
[quote]
Vadz is right, money in its physical form is just another piece of ploymer

but it is the globally accepted trade medium
[quote]
vadinho said:
Again, perception. We are so caught up by our paradigm that we can't step away and consider what has actually occurred.


True, it's perception, but it's a shared perception not simply individual illusion.
Moreover, that perception is connected with relationships of power, and those who hold power will stop at nothing to maintain it. Metaphorically and literally, money buys guns.
[quote]
OneHappy said:
vadinho said:
Again, perception. We are so caught up by our paradigm that we can't step away and consider what has actually occurred.


True, it's perception, but it's a shared perception not simply individual illusion.
Moreover, that perception is connected with relationships of power, and those who hold power will stop at nothing to maintain it. Metaphorically and literally, money buys guns.


well then it's a collective delusion..
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
well then it's a collective delusion..


the human race is well-acquainted with such notions.
[quote]
For those who are hoping for the banking system to collapse so property prices will drop... Who are you going to get to lend you the money to buy a house with? 5-10% deposits will be a thing of the past.
[quote]
gummi_bear said:
For what it's worth, I couldn't agree more with Vadz on this.

These type of financial disasters are rooted in a construction, a shared imagination of the masses :>


Exactly.

Can farms produce less food now than they could before?
Can factories produce less cars/machines?
[quote]
neil_armstrong said:
sparkymo said:
where is the other 1%?


Africa, Asia, South America


famous for their democracies, open transparent governments, incorruptibility, lack of religious superstition, stable population growth....

oh wait
[quote]
John Rowley, head of Macquarie Financial Services Group New Zealand said:
"The biggest dilemma we've all got at the moment is trying to understand something that is totally alien to what we've been through before."


quote of the day
[quote]
dont have time to read the whole thread...

personally I'm not for this bailout but (weirdly imo) most of the economists do think its a sensible idea.
I dont know how bad it will get without it... but i reckon it would clear out the crap quicker and allow for the new growth (to stick with the local metaphor kinda like an Aussie bush fire )
[quote]
peat said:
dont have time to read the whole thread...

personally I'm not for this bailout but (weirdly imo) most of the economists do think its a sensible idea


apparently no the case


quote:

The Bush administration's pitch for a sweeping bailout of the financial system has centered on two simple premises: that the economy could suffer a crippling downturn if action is not taken very quickly and that this action should consist of the government buying troubled mortgage securities from banks and other institutions.

But many of the nation's top economists disagree with one or both of those ideas, even as many top political leaders have swung behind them.

Wall Street economists have mostly endorsed Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr.'s plan, or a variation thereof.

But almost 200 academic economists -- who aren't paid by the institutions that could directly benefit from the plan but who also may not have recent practical experience in the markets -- have signed a petition organized by a University of Chicago professor objecting to the plan on the grounds that it could create perverse incentives, that it is too vague and that its long-run effects are unclear




full article here

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/25/AR2008092504531.html
[quote]
We are all gonna be poor Sad
[quote]
I'm glad the idea got dumped. To me it seemed to be a bandaid solution to a dam about to breach. Yes, they could have stuck their fingers in the holes to try and stop the water coming through, but eventually they would have run out of fingers and then the dam will burst anyway. We need a REAL solution, not a bandaid that seems to be driven by the powers that be so they don't lose too much money.


[quote]
It hasn't been dumped, I imagine it will pass on the next round, there is too much pressure from various corners for it not to pass.

I can see why many people are against this bail out but I don't hear anyone offering up any other solutions?

The money is freezing is up, it may well save the skins of a few fat cats on wall street but I don't think its all about them either.

Here's a real world example of what we can expect if the bill is not passed...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4712178a13.html

Except it will be on a far larger scale, if a business can't borrow they can't expand or in many cases even start up and if they are not expanding they are either static or worse yet contracting. Either way the first thing to go when the money gets tight will be jobs, yours, mine, everyone's.

There may be other solutions out there but whether they can be enacted with the speed that is required I.E straight away, is another thing, time is of the essence.

We are in the shit, make no mistake.
[quote]
Kittenslayer2 said:
We are all gonna be poor Sad
Wink